Metcalfe's Law

As I had opined in previous posts, the next stage of the Web will be built on the existing infrastructure of Web 2.0. One of the foremost thinkers of the Semantic Web makes an insightful analysis of the progress from Web 2.0 to the Semantic Web. Along with Jennifer Golbeck, James Hendler puts forth the idea of Metcalfe's Law, arguing that value increases as the number of users increases. Because of this, potential links increase for every user as a new person joins. Not surprisingly, Metcalfe's Law is the essence of Web 2.0.

As the number of people in the network grows, the connectivity increases, and if people can link to each other's content, the value grows at an enormous rate. The Web, if it were simply a collection of pages of content, would not have the value it has today. Without linking, the Web would be a blob of disconnected pages.

As information professionals and librarians, we shouldn't miss out on the obvious links between Web 2.0 and the Semantic Web. Social networking is critical to the success of Web 2.0; but by combining the social networks of Web 2.0 with the semantic networks of the Semantic Web, a tremendous value is possible. Here's a scenario from Tom Gruber which I find very compelling:

Real Travel "seeds" a Web 2.0 travel site with the terms from a gazetteer ontology. This allows the coupling of place names and locations, linked together in an ontology structure, with the dynamic content and tagging of a Web 2.0 travel site. The primary user experience is of a site where travel logs (essentially blogs about trips), photos, travel tools and other travel-related materials are all linked together. Behind this, however, is the simple ontology that knows that Warsaw is a city in Poland, that Poland is a country in Europe, etc. Thus a photo taken in Warsaw is known to be a photo from Poland in a search, browsing can traverse links in the geolocation ontology, and other "fortuitous" links can be found. The social construct of the travel site, and communities of travelers with like interests, can be exploited by Web 2.0 technology, but it is given extra value by the simple semantics encoded in the travel ontology.

Genius.

Pragmatic Web as HD TV

The Pragmatic Web: A Manifesto makes a return to simplification. For all the hype about Web 3.0, we've still seen very little substantial evidence that it exists. Schoop, De Moor, and Dietz proposes a "Pragmatic Web" as a solution which does not replace the current web but rather, extend the Semantic Web.

Rather than waiting for everyone to come together and collaborate -- that could take forever or worse yet . . . never -- the best hope might be to encourage the emergence of communities of interest and practice that develop their own consensus knowledge on the basis of which they will standardize their representations. Thus, the vision of the Pragmatic Web is to augment human collaboration effectively by appropriate technologies. Thus, the Pragmatic Web complements the Semantic Web by improving the quality and legitimacy of collaborative, goal-oriented discourses in communities.

I liken this scenario to High-definition Television. By 2010, the majority of programming in North America will move to HDTV specifications, thus effectively removing other TV formats such as plasma TV's from competition. In the meantime, consumers are free to continue using their existing TV sets. The Web could very well employ this model, as it's logical and crosses the path of least damage. Using the HD TV scenario, Web users can continue using their current browsers and existing ways of surfing while those who want to maximize the full potential of the Web will use Semantic Web browsers (e.g. Piggy Bank) that are designed specifically to utilize the portion of the Web that is "Semantic Web-compliant."

Meanwhile, in the background, semantic annotation will be slowly integrated into Web pages, programs, and services. As time progresses, users will eventually catch onto the "rave" that is the Semantic Web . . .

E-Commerce 2.0

Web 2.0 has been quite the hype over the past few years, perhaps too much. Much of it pertains to best practices using blogs, wikis, RSS feeds, and mashups. But not very much has been discussed - well, not enough in my opinion - about practical commercial applications other than the ubiquitous eBay and Amazon. Not anymore. Meet Zopa, the world's first social finance company. In 2005 Zopa pioneered a way for people to lend and borrow directly with each other online as part of our continuing mission to give people around the world the power to help themselves financially at the same time that they help others. According to Kupp and Anderson's Zopa: Web 2.0 Meets Retail Banking, here's how Zopa works:

(1) Zopa looks at the credit scores of people looking to borrow and determines whether they're an A*, A, B, or C-rated borrower. If they're none of the those, then Zopa's not for them

(2) Leners make lending offers such as "I'd like to lend this much to A-rated borrowers for this long and at this time

(3) Borrowers review the rates offered to them and acept the ones they like. If they are dissatisfied with the offered rates on any particular day, they can come back on subsequent days to see if rates have changed

(4) To reduce any risk, Zopa spreads lender capital widely. A lender putting forth, for instance, 500 pounds or more would have his or her money across at least 50 borrowers

(5) Borrowers enter into legally binding contracts with their lenders

(6) Borrowers repay monthly by direct debit. If repayments are defaulted, a collections agency uses the same recovery process that the High Street banks use